Citizens willing to negotiate their support for the labor reform after losing the PSOE to its partners

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The parliamentary arithmetic in which Pedro Sánchez survives forces him to some juggling from time to time. The usual thing, in the day-to-day of the legislature, is that he leans on the so-called "investiture majority." ERC, Bildu, PNV and other minor groups give him support for his laws and decrees in exchange for certain concessions. But in key votes, the partners show their claws, "they act interesting" - in the words of a high-ranking Socialist deputy - and put everything at risk.

Thus, the labor reform has entrenched the Government. Republicans, Abertzales and Peneuvistas have already said no to the text agreed with the UGT and CCOO unions, and the CEOE and Cepyme employers. And Citizens appears on the horizon as the most viable option to put together an alternative majority to the usual one.

"Those of Inés Arrimadas now have the opportunity to be useful," a PSOE leader explained to this newspaper this week. "It's up to them to be credible, it suits them."

Suits them? Edmundo Bal, in conversation with EL ESPAÑOL, acknowledges that his party is willing to talk. "We are aware that we can be decisive", but he warns: "We have analyzed the reform and of course there are several things that we do not like at all". The liberals will sit down to talk if the government calls them, and will negotiate a favorable vote if "amendments are accepted."

upset calendar

What the Government wanted was to reach Congress with a text agreed upon with the social agents that would allow it to become stronger with the partners and not accept amendments. At least not substantial. If the parties directly involved, employers and workers, agree, it makes no sense for party politics to mess with it. Now, Sánchez will have no choice: either he looks at his usual partners or plays the liberal card.

Union and business leaders, together with President Pero Sánchez, in Moncloa.Moncloa

But to facilitate the operation, in addition, it was necessary that the rhythm of events help. Bearing in mind that, on the one hand, the Council of Ministers on December 28 was the one designated to approve the labor reform decree, it was necessary to draw up the Budgets beforehand. Because a month ago, the first term that Yolanda Díaz had given herself to have her agreement was fulfilled and the coincidence in dates with the public accounts of 2022 put both votes at risk.

When last week the spokespersons for PSOE and United We Can initiate quick calls to their counterparts from the rest of the parliamentary groups, they were not only seeking to eliminate the plenary session of the Day of the Innocents to advance the holidays.

The reality is that the amendment to the Compromís Budgets, surprisingly supported by the PP (and consequently, approved) at the last minute, in the Senate, destroyed a calendar carefully designed by the Government: the text of the labor reform would be known before the voting of the public accounts.

And that meant that the parliamentary partners would have, in view of all, evidence that the 2012 PP law would not be "repealed" even remotely. That the changes would be limited to important issues but, in its entirety, cosmetic. And so, both ERC and Bildu -the owners of the 18 most important votes in Congress, because they grant and remove majorities- would have grounds for complaint.

the wayward partners

And not only reasons, but local incentives to rebel. "We want the prevalence of the autonomic agreement," said Gabriel Rufián and Arnaldo Otegi, "and if we don't obtain it via amendments, we will vote no." This was flatly rejected by the businessmen during the negotiation and if the PSOE agrees to touch it, it could win in Congress, but lose the social consensus.

To this argument was added, on Christmas day, the PNV... which could not appear less demanding. And he added another argument: "The trade union reality in the Basque Country and Catalonia", warned Aitor Esteban, "is very different from that of the rest of the State".

Aitor Esteban, spokesman for the PNV, and Pedro Sánchez, President of the Government, in the Congress of Deputies.EP

In other words, the UGT and CCOO are not representative in those regions, and that justifies the nationalist groups becoming the voice of the autonomous class unions... let's see how, with these reasons and its need for parliamentary support, the PSOE and United We Can find justification for not touching the text.

In these circumstances, with the other scattered votes of the smaller groups closer to yes than no -Más País (3), CC (2), PRC (1), BNG (1)- Ciudadanos is the party that appears as an ally of convenience. If the liberals agree on a yes while ERC and Bildu remain on the no, it would take at least the PNV's abstention so that Sánchez does not see his labor reform defeated. And that is why the Basque nationalists play various bands.

In fact, the reform that the Second Vice President and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, will approve by royal decree law this Tuesday, is much more similar to the one agreed upon by PSOE and Ciudadanos in their Agreement for a reformist and progressive Government of 2016 than to the promised "repeal".

On page 21 of that document [see it in full in PDF], signed by the socialist Sánchez and the liberal Albert Rivera, many things are read that the communist Díaz assumes today.

And precisely that paper explicitly rejected the main demand put forward by nationalists and independentists to reconsider their rejection of the labor reform: "From the consideration that the ordering of the structure of collective bargaining corresponds to collective autonomy, the provincial sphere of sectoral collective bargaining must be overcome".

It is up to the PSOE to decide, based on content, if it contradicts what was recently agreed and gives the pre-eminence of the territorial agreement to its nationalist partners... or if it is consistent and looks at Ciudadanos.

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