The IBEX 35 The week begins with a 0.48% drop but saves 8,100 points

1. Raquel Enríquez

The main European stock markets have started the week with slight setbacks. What's more, if you look at the technical analysis, the benchmark indices have tested the lows of last week, that is, the levels that determine whether control of equities remains in bullish hands or becomes bearish. . However, sales have moderated at the end of the day: the Spanish Ibex 35 has ended with falls of 0.48% and has saved 8,100 points to conclude at 8,112.2 integers.

The day was also preceded by red numbers in most of the Asian exchanges (Shanghai: -1.45%), except in the Japanese: the Nikkei 225 rebounded almost half a percentage point, bringing it closer to back to their highest since 1990.

Across the 'pond,' Wall Street is trading in mixed territory, with technology the main drag after Friday's mixed and mostly flat close. Investors are still pending the fiscal stimuli for 1.9 trillion dollars that the president of the United States, Joe Biden, announced weeks ago but of which no news has yet been known.

"The first [parliamentary vote on Biden's tax package] could take place later this week (Friday-Saturday)", anticipates the Department of Income Analysis 4.

Precisely the expectations of fiscal stimuli, together with the "unconditional support of the central banks" and the progress in vaccination against covid-19 "are acting as support for the stock markets", these experts highlight.

Nevertheless, certain risks remain, such as vaccines not being effective against new strains (...) and "an upturn in inflation that is considered sustained and could cause a monetary policy error," explains Renta 4.

In fact, forecasts of rising inflation worldwide are causing sovereign debt sales and, therefore, an increase in interest on it. The German ten-year bond (bund), taken as a reference in Europe, has risen today to -0.28%, the highest since June.

At the same time, the national 'paper' has raised its interest to almost 0.37%, the highest since September. Consequently, Spain's risk premium, which measures the differential with German debt, has grown by 66 basis points.

But interest rates fell again at the end of the day due to the latest statements by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, who has assured that the body is monitoring "closely" sovereign bonds.

"A high return on bonds means that shares are less attractive every time," explains Sergio Ávila, an analyst at IG Spain.

"If long-term [term] interest rates reach attractive levels for the most conservative investors, it could cause a rotation from equities to bond markets", they predict in the same sense Link Securities experts.

Pulse between bulls and bears

Thus, the European stock markets have started the last week of February with moderate setbacks. Investors have barely had 'macro' references: apart from Lagarde's appearance in the European Parliament, the business confidence index in Germany has been known (which has been better than expected).

At the same time that the sovereign debt has 'relaxed', so have the sales in the parks, so the EuroStoxx 50 has concluded at 3,700 points. And that has even tested the lows it set last week at 3,672 (intraday low: 3,660.9).

In this way, "control of the market remains in the hands of the bulls," says Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and advisor to Ecotrader.

In the Spanish parquet, the analogous level to watch in the Ibex 35 is 8,000 integers. The selective has come to move below 8,100 (intraday minimum: 8,045). And if it loses the lows of last week, it will open the door to additional losses of 3.75%, up to 7,700 units, Cabrero anticipates.

However, the expert adds: "As soon as the current consolidation process ends, everything indicates that we will see continued rises in the Ibex".

Telefónica stars in the falls

Most of the companies in the national index have traded negatively this day. Solaria ended up being the most bearish value with decreases of 5.81%, closely followed by Acciona (-5.34%).

Likewise, three 'heavyweights' such as Banco Santander (-2.69%), Iberdrola (-2.3%) and Telefónica (-1.5%) (which could cut its dividend this year) closed in the red . Siemens Gamesa (-3.19%) and PharmaMar (-3.25%) have also remained among the worst companies.

In contrast, the airline group IAG has led the rise (up 7.81%) after learning that its subsidiary British Airways has closed two agreements to increase its liquidity.

Aena and Meliá Hotels have joined him at the top of the table with respective increases of 4.89% and 4.34%. The pharmaceutical company Almirall (-1.52%), which published its 2020 accounts before the opening, has not endured promotions.

The Enagás energy company, which will announce its results tomorrow, posted increases of 0.96%.

But if there is one stock that stands out today on the Spanish stock market, it is Nyesa Valores, listed on the Mercado Continuo: its shares soar 20% after announcing a takeover bid (OPA) about Iffe Futura.

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