Win in the stock market in 2022?Probabilities play in your favor
- elEconomista.es
2021 has ended and it is time to think about what next year will be like. Among the objectives and new purposes of more than one for 2022 may be to earn money by investing in the stock market. If that is the case, the chance of achieving it rises to 66%. Without a doubt, far superior to going to the gym every day.
As surprising as it may seem, the probability that the stock market will rise in the new year is the same as it was in 2021 and 2020 and so on, regardless of previous trends or whether the previous year was above average. This is because the stock market discounts the future, not the past as some investors tend to think.
According to the efficient market hypothesis, stock prices reflect all available information that exists, making it impossible to derive economic benefit from a future event that affects their price. That is, there is no use doing a historical analysis of the stock because the market will go up or down based on changes in expected future returns.
A theory that is corroborated by the analysis of the profitability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since its creation in 1896 published by MarketWatch. The record shows that the market has risen in 66% of cases. Likewise, the probability that in a given calendar year the market will rise when it did the previous one is the same, 66%. In the event that the stock market rises after having fallen the previous year, this probability rises to 67%, practically the same as if the trend had been the opposite.
Drafting students are learning how to scale objects in AutoCAD. https://t.co/kjzJ380nGH
— Hoosier Hills Career Center Tue Sep 19 13:33:47 +0000 2017